Boris Johnson's Covid 'winter plan' to avoid lockdowns was backed by Professor Neil Ferguson today - as experts warned the UK must learn to 'accept' 100 deaths a day.
The PM is set to unveil his blueprint for coping with an expected seasonal surge tomorrow, relying on extra jabs – starting with the elderly and most-vulnerable – to steer the country clear of any further shutdowns. Medics are also expected to give the go ahead for 12-15 year old's to be vaccinated.
Mr Johnson is shelving the idea of Covid passports for nightclubs and major events in the face of Tory fury - although they will be kept 'in reserve' - and travel restrictions will also be overhauled to ditch the traffic light system and costly PCR tests.
Many of the draconian powers taken by the government at the start of the crisis will also be scrapped as the premier tries to restore his libertarian credentials.
However, masks and ordering people to work from home will be kept in the 'toolbox' of measures that can be deployed.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Prof Ferguson said the level of immunity now present in the UK population meant that tackling a surge in transmission might not 'require full lockdown'.
He said the effect of not going ahead with vaccine passports in England - although they are being introduced in Scotland from October 1 - 'won't be huge'.
Meanwhile, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies and director of the Wellcome Trust, has urged an 'honest debate' about the trade-offs between opening up society and victims of the disease.
'Politicians across the world are sort of pretending you can have your cake and eat it: 'You can have zero deaths, no control measures, vaccinate if you want to or not vaccinate and it will all end.' I just don't think that's realistic,' he reportedly told the German podcast Pandemia.
'I think [in the UK] around a hundred deaths a day, throughout the year, 30,000 deaths a year, in the current situation with the current vaccines, current treatments, current capacity within the system, I think is a level that would have to in the end be acceptable.'
A winter plan to help England keep on top of Covid this winter is set to be revealed by Boris Johnson (pictured) tomorrow. Prof Neil Ferguson said the level of immunity now present in the UK population meant that tackling a surge in transmission might not 'require full lockdown'
Plans for vaccine passports for nightclubs and major events were sensationally scrapped yesterday - much to the delight of hospitality chiefs - but they could be brought back
In a round of interviews this morning, Work and Pensions Secretary Therese Coffey suggested the work from home guidance could return under plans to combat a possible surge in coronavirus during the winter.
She told BBC Breakfast that some options such as more home working and paying statutory sick pay from day one rather than day four, were still on the table.
'These are the sensible measures I think that we're going to keep,' she said.
Asked about masks, she said: The Prime Minister will be setting out the Covid winter plan tomorrow. I think my approach, and I see that with a lot of employers organisations, is about having a situation-specific approach.'
Health Secretary Sajid Javid said yesterday that vaccine passports would not be introduced this month, after a revolt by Tory MPs and business leaders.
But Mr Coffey stressed they have not been 'ruled out forever'.
She told BBC Breakfast: 'As Sajid Javid set out yesterday, although the formal decision is still to be made, but having reflected and looked at the details of the proposal that it's not deemed necessary at this moment in time.
'But they haven't been ruled out forever. It's reflecting the fact that a lot of young people have come forward and got their vaccinations over the summer.'
Ministers believe the plan is sufficient to all-but rule out any national lockdowns - which Mr Johnson is said to be 'dead set' against.
Mr Javid said yesterday that he was 'not anticipating' any more lockdowns, saying 'I just don't see how we get to another one (lockdown).'
But he left the door open for the toughest of restrictions, saying it would be 'irresponsible to take everything off the table'.
In an early glimmer of hope for the holiday season, the Health Secretary suggested that families would be able to spend Christmas together this year - after celebrations were dramatically cut short in 2020 due to the spread of the Kent variant.
The announcements – set to be unveiled at a press conference tomorrow and to MPs before the Commons rises on Wednesday – come after a week of frenzied speculation about the conditions that would be imposed on Britons as the country 'lives with Covid' this winter.
The plan will warn that vaccine passports could be required if the NHS faces being overwhelmed.
It will set out details of when and how passports could be introduced, and will warn that other restrictions, such as mandatory mask-wearing, may have to be reintroduced if the pandemic continues.
Changes such as compulsory home working and reintroducing social-distancing are not being ruled out.
It was unclear last night how decisions would be made to reimpose restrictions.
But, according to the Telegraph, Mr Johnson will make clear this week he is 'dead set' against another national lockdown.
He will instead urge people to 'learn to live with Covid', the paper reports.
According to the Sun, Mr Johnson will rely on the Covid vaccine to limit the spread of Covid.
Third doses of the jab are to be rolled out in autumn in a similar way to the first vaccine drive - starting with the most elderly and vulnerable.
The Government will also launch a massive 'flu shot blitz' which will be supported by a large-scale advertising campaign urging people to get both jabs, the Sun adds.
Children aged 12-15 will also be offered a single Covid shot, pending approval from scientific advisers, the Telegraph reports.
While national measures will also be set out, changes to international travel are also expected.
The travel traffic lights system is due to be scrapped, according to the Telegraph, with just a 'red list' for the worst Covid-hit countries kept in its place.
The number of countries on the red list will also be drastically reduced, the paper adds.
And, according to the Telegraph, PCR tests will not be required for fully vaccinated travellers.
It comes as yesterday, another 29,173 cases were recorded, as well as 56 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.
A senior government source told The Telegraph of the argument Mr Johnson would make: 'This is the new normal. We need to learn to live with Covid.
'The vaccines are a wall of defence. The autumn and the winter do offer some uncertainty, but the Prime Minister is dead set against another lockdown.'
But while the changes will come as a positive for some, others have urged the Government to limit the number of Covid rules this winter.
Mark Harper, chairman of the Covid Recovery Group of Tory MPs, meanwhile said that while he was pleased with the news that vaccine passports would be scrapped, he wanted a permanent end to any plans for such a scheme.
Yesterday he tweeted: 'I welcome Savid Javid confirming that vaccine passports are not going ahead now.
'I'm pleased he has listened to the compelling case against them. They shouldn't be kept in reserve. They are pointless, damaging and discriminatory.'
Vaccine passports allow people access to venues if they have had both Covid jabs. They will be introduced in Scotland for clubs and large venues next month.
In a national research programme in April, revellers were allowed into clubs so data could be gathered on how events could be permitted to reopen safely.
But following a Tory backlash against vaccine passports, Mr Javid said yesterday the idea had been shelved for England.
He told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: 'I've never liked the idea of saying to people you must show your papers to do what is just an everyday activity.
'We've looked at it properly, and whilst we should keep it in reserve, I'm pleased to say we will not be going ahead with plans for vaccine passports.'
He said that while he was 'not anticipating' any more lockdowns, it would be 'irresponsible to take everything off the table'.
His announcement on the passports came a week after vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi told the same show the end of September was the right time to start the vaccine passport scheme for sites with large crowds.
Deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner said: 'Days ago, the vaccine minister stood before Parliament to confirm the introduction of Covid passports – now they've been scrapped.
'This is the culmination of a summer of chaos from ministers. They need to get a grip before winter.'
Mr Javid told Times Radio the passports were 'a huge intrusion into people's lives', adding: 'We don't think it is necessary at this point.
'We're keeping it in reserve, but we're not going to go ahead.'
The hospitality sector welcomed the news that the passports will not be introduced in England.
Michael Kill, chief executive of the Night Time Industries Association, said: 'We hope businesses will be able to plan for the future with some degree of certainty... and rebuild a sector that has consistently been at the sharp end of this pandemic.'
He added that the Government had 'grossly underestimated some logistical and ethical challenges'.
Sacha Lord, night time economy adviser for Greater Manchester and co-founder of the Parklife festival, said the plans were 'untenable and illogical' and aspects were 'discriminatory and legally questionable'.
He added: 'We can now move forward without vague regulations.'
It comes as Britain's Covid outbreak shrank on Sunday, with cases falling by 21 per cent while the number of deaths also declined.
Department of Health figures show 29,173 daily cases were recorded across the UK today, compared to 37,011 last week - a reduction of more than a fifth - while Covid deaths fell from 68 to 56.
In Scotland, more than 1,000 Covid patients are in hospital and 5,912 new cases were recorded in the past 24 hours.
Though the latest figures north of the border show no deaths, the Scottish Government says registry offices are generally closed at weekends.
Meanwhile, six further deaths of patients who had previously tested positive for Covid in Northern Ireland were registered - while another 1,031 positive cases of the virus were also confirmed in the region.
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