This Is How You’re Most Likely to Die During Each Decade of Your Life

Some people are obsessed with the thought of how they’ll die, while others would rather remain in the dark on the subject of their death. While death is highly unpredictable, statisticians have created forecasts of how likely a person is to die based on their age.

Read on to find out how you’re most likely to die during each decade of your life, as well as more about the study and its associated test.

The graph and its associated test 

A UCLA statistician named Nathan Yau used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to plot the correlation between the most common ways people die based on their age of death. He used the CDC’s mortality data from 2005 – 2014 to make the graph as well as an associated test.

The flowing data test shows what you’re statistically most likely to die from based on your current age, gender, and race in each decade of your life. For example, a white, female baby born today is most likely to die of circulatory issues like a heart attack or stroke if she dies in her 80s. A black woman who is currently in her early 2os is likeliest to die of cancer if she passes in her late 40s or early 50s. 

20s & 30s

 

• External causes

External causes — classified under the three main categories suicide, homicide, and accidents like road traffic crashes — are the largest killer of people in their 20s and 30s. The Auto Insurance Center’s analysis of 2013 fatal car crashes revealed that failure to stay in the right lane and failure to yield the right-of-way were the two leading causes of fatal accidents.

Men, however, are twice as likely during their lifetime to die from an external cause than women are at 10% overall compared to 5 percent. 

40s 

• Early 40s: External causes
• Mid-to-late 40s: Circulatory issues and cancer

While external causes are the leading cause of death for men and women in their early 40s, by 45 and older you’re as likely or more likely to die from circulatory issues — like heart disease — or cancer.

Cardiovascular diseases like heart disease are considered premature in your 40s, according to Harvard Health, and as many as 4% to 10% of all heart attacks in men occur before the age of 45. U.K. research on cancer incidence by age showed that adults through the age of 49 are the subject of 10% of cancer cases, where twice as many females as males likely to develop the disease. 

50s 

• Circulatory problems

Circulatory problems like heart disease and stroke are the most likely cause of death for both men and woman in their 50s. Heart disease, the leading cause of death in the United States overall, with an average of one person dying from cardiovascular disease (CVD) every 40 seconds.

While death rates due to stroke have declined in recent years, stroke accounts for one in every 20 deaths in the U.S. 

60s 

• Men: Cancer
• Women: Cancer and circulatory issues

Men are most likely to die of cancer in their 60s, while women are about equally as likely to die from cancer as they are aforementioned circulatory issues.

An AARP analysis of health habits for Americans in their 60s showed some of the common practices that men and women engage in that may be detrimental to their health and cancer or heart disease risk. For example, one in seven women and one in four men in their 60s still drink to excess on occasion, which has the potential to double your risk of congestive heart failure. 

70s 

• Cancer

Many adults in their 70s suffer from cancer as a consequence of harmful actions like smoking, unsafe sun exposure, or excessive alcohol and drug use. However, cancer incidence as a result of age and gender reaches its peak in your 70s.

Men are at significant risk for prostate, colon, and lung cancer, while women in their 70s are at increased risk for breast, colon, and lung cancer. Several “relatively rare” cancers become more common in your 70s including throat, esophagus, kidney, and pancreatic cancers, according to Vibrant Life. 

80s 

• Circulatory issues

The graph reveals that the older people get, the more likely they are to die from a circulatory problem, regardless of their demographic. People 80 years of age or older have at least a 40% chance of dying from one of these circulatory issues.

“This surprised me,” Yau said, “because it seems like cancer would be the leading cause just going off general news … This is certainly true up to a certain age, but get past that and your heart can only keep going for so long.”